Thai Politics Shifting from "Three Factions" to "Two Camps," Says Piyabutr Saengkanokkul

Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, Secretary-General of the Progressive Movement, shared his analysis of Thailand's political landscape on Facebook under the title "From Three Factions to Two Camps." He critiques the current state of political division and proposes a new framework for understanding Thai politics.

Piyabutr initially aligned with the popular theory that Thai politics was divided into three factions after Pheu Thai formed a "cross-coalition" government. These factions included:

1. Progressive forces, including Move Forward Party and its supporters.
2. Pheu Thai Party, maintaining its identity as a challenger of traditional power since the 2006 coup.
3. Traditional conservative groups, encompassing the state apparatus and other parties vying to represent this bloc.

This analysis assumed that no single faction could dominate, requiring temporary alliances for power-sharing. However, Piyabutr argues this three-faction framework is outdated and based on electoral dynamics rather than ideological differences or political strategies.

The "Two-Licenses" Democracy

Piyabutr introduces the concept of Thailand's "two-license democracy," where political parties must secure two forms of approval to govern:

1. First license: Approval from the people through elections.
2. Second license: Endorsement from traditional elites who hold extrajudicial power.

Even if a party wins elections, it may be denied the second license, preventing it from forming a government. Conversely, a governing party may lose this license if it fails to please the elites. As a result, parties often prioritize appeasing these power holders over adhering to democratic principles.

From Three Factions to Two Camps

Using this framework, Piyabutr redefines Thai politics as a conflict between two camps:

1. The New Power: Political forces prioritizing the people's license and advocating structural reforms to eliminate the second license, restoring power solely to the electorate.
2. The Old Power: Groups that seek to maintain and benefit from the two-license system by appeasing traditional elites for personal or political gain, often neglecting popular mandates.

Piyabutr emphasizes that the shift to two camps reflects a deeper ideological battle over the legitimacy and structure of political power in Thailand. The New Power aims to normalize democracy, while the Old Power clings to the status quo for personal advantage. He calls on the public to evaluate parties based on their actions and stances to determine their allegiance to these camps.